A Good Sign

Well at least there’s been something surfable in the water over the last few days, and it looks like it should continue for a while as well.  A good sign is developing on the horizon, and I’m talking about way way out there on the horizon, in fact east of the dateline.

Most models are alluding to a semi-stationary high pressure system setting up camp well to the east of the dateline this coming weekend and into early next week.  Now whilst the wind strengths aren’t progged at this stage to get much above 20knts, there’s two other good signs.  The sheer length of the fetch on the northern flank of the high pressure system is quite vast, stretching some 3000km.  Secondly, the semi-stationary nature of the high pressure system means the fetch remains over similar waters for some 3+ days, hence allowing the winds to work on an already active sea state.

Now before you race out and start waxing up the stick and checking the spark plugs in the jetski, we aren’t going to be seeing any large swell from this event.  I’d be thinking something of the order of a very inconsistent 2-3ft E’ly groundswell probably from late next week and into next weekend and beyond (say 16th/17th September onwards).

It is a good sign however to see such large semi-stationary high pressure systems setting up camp in our eastern swell window.  We just need them to be about another 2000km closer to home and we’d be laughing then.  Definitely a sign of an active La Nina that’s for sure.

Til then, enjoy the combination of fun E’ly swell and S’ly groundswell we’ve got on the cards over the next few days as it should create some fun beachies on the morning high tides.  Although that devil wind may spoil the party from Thursday mid morning onwards.